A multinomial probabilistic model for movie genre predictions

This paper proposes a movie genreprediction based on multinomial probability model. To the best of our knowledge, this problem has not been addressed yet in the field of recommender system. The prediction of a movies genre has many practical applications including complementing the items categories given by experts and providing a surprise effect in the recommendations given to a user. We employ mulitnomial event model to estimate a likelihood of a movie given genre and the Bayes rule to evaluate the posterior probability of a genre given a movie. Experiments with the MovieLens dataset validate our approach. We achieved 70% prediction rate using only 15% of the whole set for training. Keywords—Recommender system, category prediction, multinomial model, Naive Bayes classifier.